Over 140,000 fewer units sold in 2025, Assotermica "Companies in the sector at risk"
Amidst general uncertainty in the heat generator sector, the Italian boiler market is expected to see a significant decline in sales volumes in 2025, indicating growing concern for the entire industry. Data from Assotermica, an association of heating system equipment and components manufacturers affiliated with Anima Confindustria, for the main product categories shows a widespread decline, particularly sharp in the domestic boiler segment, which represents the core of the market for companies in the sector.
Specifically, wall-mounted boilers will drop from 911,899 units sold in 2024 to 769,090 in 2025, a decline of 15.7%. This is a worrying figure not only because of the relative importance of this category, but also because of its strategic role in the residential system renovation process. The negative trend also extends to floor-standing boilers, which fell from 8,342 to 6,340 units (-24.0%), blown boilers, which fell from 4,252 to 3,626 units (-14.7%), and gas water heaters, which fell from 310,021 to 291,084 units (-7.5%). The situation is no better for generators that integrate renewable energy, with hybrid appliances slowing further, reaching 9,040 units (-5.0%), as did heat pump water heaters, which dropped from 23,516 to 22,916 units (-7.5%). Only burners bucked the trend, recording an increase from 23,539 to 25,581 units (+8.7%).
Data analysis paints a picture of a slowdown that cannot be interpreted as a simple economic fluctuation. Instead, it reveals a period of structural uncertainty that risks compromising the market's ability to support the technological replacement of existing systems. Indeed, in Italy, a large share of obsolete appliances remains—approximately 9 million—characterized by lower efficiency levels than currently available solutions and a higher energy and environmental impact.
The decline in sales therefore takes on an even more critical significance, impacting not only the economy of a sector that employs thousands of workers, but also slowing the process of improving building efficiency, with direct effects on household energy consumption and the overall sustainability of the system.
"In a context like the current one," says Assotermica President Giuseppe Lorubio , "it is crucial that institutions pay maximum attention to a sector that plays a central role in the country's energy efficiency journey. The data clearly shows a slowdown in system renewal, precisely when it would be necessary to accelerate the replacement of obsolete technologies with more efficient solutions. The regulatory framework has undergone profound changes in recent years: now is the time to restart, clearly defining the plans to adopt for the future of building efficiency. It is equally important to ensure a clear, stable, and coherent incentive system: tools like the Ecobonus and the Home Bonus must be able to concretely support families' choices."
The outlook for 2025 therefore highlights a highly critical phase for the sector, where declining volumes are compounded by a context of global uncertainty that risks amplifying its critical issues. Companies in the supply chain, deeply rooted in the national production system, are facing a reduction in demand that could have direct repercussions on business continuity and employment, at a time when there is a greater need to stabilize cash flows to invest in future-oriented solutions.
In the absence of clear signals and a medium- to long-term vision, the risk is that the sector will gradually weaken, precisely at a time when the heating industry's contribution is essential to supporting the energy transition.
Specifically, wall-mounted boilers will drop from 911,899 units sold in 2024 to 769,090 in 2025, a decline of 15.7%. This is a worrying figure not only because of the relative importance of this category, but also because of its strategic role in the residential system renovation process. The negative trend also extends to floor-standing boilers, which fell from 8,342 to 6,340 units (-24.0%), blown boilers, which fell from 4,252 to 3,626 units (-14.7%), and gas water heaters, which fell from 310,021 to 291,084 units (-7.5%). The situation is no better for generators that integrate renewable energy, with hybrid appliances slowing further, reaching 9,040 units (-5.0%), as did heat pump water heaters, which dropped from 23,516 to 22,916 units (-7.5%). Only burners bucked the trend, recording an increase from 23,539 to 25,581 units (+8.7%).
Data analysis paints a picture of a slowdown that cannot be interpreted as a simple economic fluctuation. Instead, it reveals a period of structural uncertainty that risks compromising the market's ability to support the technological replacement of existing systems. Indeed, in Italy, a large share of obsolete appliances remains—approximately 9 million—characterized by lower efficiency levels than currently available solutions and a higher energy and environmental impact.
The decline in sales therefore takes on an even more critical significance, impacting not only the economy of a sector that employs thousands of workers, but also slowing the process of improving building efficiency, with direct effects on household energy consumption and the overall sustainability of the system.
"In a context like the current one," says Assotermica President Giuseppe Lorubio , "it is crucial that institutions pay maximum attention to a sector that plays a central role in the country's energy efficiency journey. The data clearly shows a slowdown in system renewal, precisely when it would be necessary to accelerate the replacement of obsolete technologies with more efficient solutions. The regulatory framework has undergone profound changes in recent years: now is the time to restart, clearly defining the plans to adopt for the future of building efficiency. It is equally important to ensure a clear, stable, and coherent incentive system: tools like the Ecobonus and the Home Bonus must be able to concretely support families' choices."
The outlook for 2025 therefore highlights a highly critical phase for the sector, where declining volumes are compounded by a context of global uncertainty that risks amplifying its critical issues. Companies in the supply chain, deeply rooted in the national production system, are facing a reduction in demand that could have direct repercussions on business continuity and employment, at a time when there is a greater need to stabilize cash flows to invest in future-oriented solutions.
In the absence of clear signals and a medium- to long-term vision, the risk is that the sector will gradually weaken, precisely at a time when the heating industry's contribution is essential to supporting the energy transition.
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